The 900lb gorilla has been vanquished. Those with any affinity for democracy or liberalism have every right to breathe a sigh of relief. Anthony Jones’ moving CNN report spoke volumes – the election of Biden is at the very least an indicator that common decency is still important in society.
But before we become too absorbed in a typically self-congratulatory liberal celebration, it is worth keeping an eye on the future. Washington gridlock aside, the spectre of 2024 is already looming large.
Defending office is an entirely different proposition to challenging for it. In 2020, it was sufficient for the Democrats to simply be the ‘Not Trump Party’. A positive policy vision was not required, and the party was able to paper over internal divisions for the cause of fighting The Donald. In four years’ time however, it will be the Democrats under the microscope, not Trump.
The next four years must therefore be dedicated to producing a coherent and inspiring political vision that the Democrats can take to the electorate. Right now, it seems like the party is light years away from this.
What Does Isaac Newton Think?
In general I am deeply suspicious of efforts to bring scientific laws into social studies. While adding the word ‘science’ to ‘political’ or ‘economic’ adds meretricious authority, it generally reduces these nuanced disciplines to contrived formulae and ‘laws’ which only detract from the subjects.
However, I am now going to break my own rule and bring a bit of Newton to the discussion around the Democratic Party’s future. Newton’s third law of motion states that each action will have an equal and opposite reaction, and the application of this law appears to be just as relevant in the political realm as its mechanical counterpart.
Trump is the archetype of this law’s political relevance. Trumpism is in equal measures controversial and inspirational, capable of evoking astonishing passion at both ends of the emotional spectrum. 2020 saw the record for ‘largest popular vote’ broken twice – once by Trump himself, and once by his rival Biden.
The Democrats need to learn from this when choosing their policy direction for 2024. Big ideas (which are almost by definition controversial) may inspire astonishing support, but they are also likely to be met with substantial resistance.
Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez has set out the stall for a Democratic answer to Trumpism. She made the (valid) point that extraordinary levels of turnout will not be maintained through a return to the status quo. According to AOC, Black Lives Matter and Medicare need to be at the heart of the Democrats’ progressive programme for the future.
But Newton would argue that for every individual inspired, there will be an equivalent kickback from the Republican party. It should not be ignored that Republicans across the country used the ‘defund the police’ slogan as a rallying cry to get conservative-leaning neutrals to vote for a candidate who they otherwise did not entirely agree with.
It is this phenomenon which explains Trump’s superficially inexplicable support amongst Latino voters. Despite repeatedly associating Latinos with drugs, rape and crime, they proved to be a substantial boost to Trump’s electoral fortunes. A visceral fear of socialism, with the hangover from Cuba and Marxist insurgencies across Latin America still being acutely felt within these communities, allowed The Republicans to brand Biden a ‘socialist’. This motivated vast quantities of Latinos (amongst others) to vote against giving Biden the keys to the White House. It is difficult to predict the magnitude of resistance amongst these groups if the Democratic party were to lurch further to the left.
That being said, it remains the case that America’s showbiz politics may need more than inoffensive centrism to keep Biden in the White House. If Trump’s supporters remain vigilant over the next four years, then it is extremely unlikely that the status quo will be sufficient to garner the votes required to fend off Trump’s challenge.
The word ‘minefield’ springs to mind. This will prove to be the most difficult of balancing acts for the Democrats – attempting to tack to the left while avoiding offering The Republicans easy political targets. Seeking to unite Americans with Medicare, while avoiding the inflammatory rhetoric of Identity Politics, would serve Biden well for the coming years.
Big pigeon energy 